NFL – What To Look For Week 10

SECOND-HALF SURGES: Since 2000, 20 teams have reached the halfway point of the season with a .500 or below winning percentage and proceeded to the playoffs, including at least one in each season.

The 2001 New England Patriots started at 4-4 and won seven of their final eight games en route to an 11-5 regular season and the team’s first Super Bowl championship (XXXVI).

In 2002, half of the playoff field of 12 teams consisted of clubs that started at 4-4 or below, including five of the six AFC participants.

The teams since 2000 that started the season at .500 or below through eight games and earned a playoff berth:

 

YEAR

TEAM

RECORD

(8 GAMES)

RECORD

(16 GAMES)

PLAYOFF RESULTS

2000

Denver

4-4

11-5

 

AFC Wild Card, L 21-3 at Baltimore

2000

Tampa Bay

4-4

10-6

 

NFC Wild Card, L 21-3 at Philadelphia

2001

New England

4-4

11-5

 

Super Bowl XXXVI, W 20-17 vs. St. Louis

2001

Tampa Bay

4-4

9-7

 

NFC Wild Card, L 31-9 at Philadelphia

2002

Cleveland

4-4

9-7

 

AFC Wild Card, L 36-33 at Pittsburgh

2002

Tennessee

4-4

11-5

 

AFC Championship, L 41-24 at Oakland

2002

Indianapolis

4-4

10-6

 

AFC Wild Card, L 41-0 at N.Y. Jets

2002

Oakland

4-4

11-5

 

Super Bowl XXXVII, L 48-21 vs. Tampa Bay

2002

N.Y. Giants

4-4

10-6

 

NFC Wild Card, L 39-38 at San Francisco

2002

N.Y. Jets

3-5

9-7

 

AFC Divisional, L 30-10 at Oakland

2003

Green Bay

4-4

10-6

 

NFC Divisional, L 20-17 at Philadelphia

2004

Green Bay

4-4

10-6

 

NFC Wild Card, L 31-17 vs. Minnesota

2004

St. Louis

4-4

8-8

 

NFC Divisional, L 47-17 at Atlanta

2005

New England

4-4

10-6

 

AFC Divisional, L 27-13 at Denver

2006

Dallas

4-4

9-7

 

NFC Wild Card, L 21-20 at Seattle

2006

N.Y. Jets

4-4

10-6

 

AFC Wild Card, L 37-16 at New England

2006

Philadelphia

4-4

10-6

 

NFC Divisional, L 27-24 at New Orleans

2007

San Diego

4-4

11-5

 

AFC Championship, L 21-12 at New England

2007

Seattle

4-4

10-6

 

NFC Divisional, L 42-20 at Green Bay

2007

Tampa Bay

4-4

9-7

 

NFC Wild Card, L 24-14 vs. N.Y. Giants

 

Since 2000, the GREEN BAY PACKERS and INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, who are both 4-4, have produced two of the top five records in the NFL in the regular season’s final two months, including January.

 

The Packers stand fourth in winning percentage in that time period (.667) and the Colts fifth (.630).

 

The top five records in November and December (including January) since 2000:

 

TEAM

W-L-T

PCT.

New England

53-17

 

.757

Philadelphia

49-22

 

.690

Pittsburgh

48-23-1

 

.674

Green Bay

48-24

.667

Indianapolis

46-27

.630

ROOKIE QBs RACKING UP WINS & YARDS: The two quarterbacks selected in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft — MATT RYAN (Atlanta, No. 3) and JOE FLACCO (Baltimore, No. 18) — are off to productive starts through the midpoint of the season.

 

As starting quarterbacks since Week 1, Ryan and Flacco have led their clubs to a combined 10-6 (.625) record (each team is 5-3) and have thrown for a combined 3,125 yards (Ryan, 1,661; Flacco, 1,464).

 

As Ryan and Flacco begin the second half of their seasons this weekend, they project to post the highest combined winning percentage of two rookie quarterbacks in the same season in the Super Bowl era (minimum eight starts each) and the most combined rookie passing yards all-time.

 

 

 

A look at the highest combined winning percentage by two rookie quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) in a season (minimum eight starts each):

 

 

YEAR

QUARTERBACKS

W-L

PCT.

1983

John Elway/Dan Marino

11-8

.579

1979

Steve Fuller/Phil Simms

12-11

.522

2006

Matt Leinart/Vince Young

12-12

.500

2006

Bruce Gradkowski/Vince Young

11-13

.458

2003

Kyle Boller/Byron Leftwich

10-12

.455

 

 

 

 

2008

Joe Flacco/Matt Ryan

10-6

.625*

* Through eight games each

 

 

 

The most combined passing yards by two rookie quarterbacks in a season all-time:

 

YEAR

QUARTERBACKS

COMBINED YARDS

1998

Charlie Batch/Peyton Manning

5,917

1993

Drew Bledsoe/Rick Mirer

5,327

1998

Ryan Leaf/Peyton Mannning

5,028

2002

David Carr/Joey Harrington

4,886

2006

Matt Leinart/Vince Young

4,746

 

 

 

2008

Joe Flacco/Matt Ryan

3,125*

* Through eight games each

 

 

 

— NFL —

ROOKIE RB DUOS: Through the midpoint of the season, rookie running backs CHRIS JOHNSON of Tennessee and STEVE SLATON of Houston are on pace to each exceed 1,000 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.

 

Johnson leads the AFC with 715 rush yards and has five rushing touchdowns. Slaton stands fourth in the conference with 538 yards and has five touchdowns. If both players reach the 1,000-yard/10-touchdown level, they will become the fourth NFL rookie running back duo to accomplish the feat in the same season.

 

 

The three rookie running back duos to reach 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in the same season:

 

 

YEAR

PLAYER

TEAM

YARDS

TDS

1980

Joe Cribbs

Buffalo

1,185

11

 

Billy Sims

Detroit

1,303

13

 

 

 

 

 

1983

Eric Dickerson

L.A. Rams

1,808

18

 

Curt Warner

Seattle

1,449

13

 

 

 

 

 

1995

Curtis Martin

New England

1,487

14

 

Rashaan Salaam

Chicago

1,074

10

2008*

Chris Johnson

Tennessee

1,430

10

Steve Slaton

Houston

1,076

10

* Mid-season projections

30-TD RECORD TO FALL?: In 1959, the Baltimore Colts’ JOHNNY UNITAS (32) became the first quarterback in history to throw for 30 touchdowns in a season. In 1980, 2004 and 2007, four quarterbacks reached the 30-touchdown mark, the most in a season.

 

That mark can fall in 2008. Halfway through the season, five quarterbacks are on pace for 30 or more touchdown passes.

 

 

The quarterbacks who project to at least 30 touchdown passes in 2008:

 

 

QUARTERBACK

TEAM

TDS

PROJECTION

Philip Rivers

San Diego

19

38

Kurt Warner

Arizona

16

32

Drew Brees

New Orleans

15

30

Jay Cutler

Denver

15

30

Brett Favre

N.Y. Jets

15

30

 

The four quarterbacks who set the NFL record for 30 touchdown passes in a season in 1980, 2004 and 2007:

 

 

’80 QUARTERBACK

TDs

’04 QUARTERBACK

TDs

’07 QUARTERBACK

TDs

Steve Bartkowski

31

 

Peyton Manning

49

 

Tom Brady

50

Vince Ferragamo

30

 

Daunte Culpepper

39

 

Tony Romo

36

Dan Fouts

30

 

Donovan McNabb

31

 

Ben Roethlisberger

32

Brian Sipe

30

 

Brett Favre

30

 

Peyton Manning

31

 

— NFL —