A lot of my time has been spent lately looking for stats and predictions for the 2010 NFL season. My bosses here at TMR said that my columns should be based on fact and evidence. To quote them they said “Cletus don’t pull these predictions out of your ass. Do some research.”
So as I research this subject I see the “Pro” sports writers and analyst are all spouting their picks to win the 2011 Superbowl. Where are these guys getting their information? As far as I can tell there is no way to scientifically determine who is going to win a sporting event. Let alone a championship that will have 16 weeks of games determining who goes into a tournament style playoff system.
This year the FIFA World Cup had that octopus that was picking the games correctly through every round. Last year we had the autistic teenager that picked every game through the first two rounds correctly for March Madness. Still he was not able continue with that perfection all the way through the tourney.
The odds of what the Chicago teen did accomplish? One in 13,460,000, according to BookofOdds.com. It’s easier to win the lottery. Twice. Which brings me to my point.
If you are going to bet on the winner of the Super Bowl you are better off buying a scratch ticket. One tweaked knee or rape allegation and a playoff bound team’s Superbowl aspirations are over. So if you are going to bet on the Superbowl this early get some bang for your buck.
You could put a $10 bet on the New Orleans Saints and pray for a repeat. That would net you a cool $100 6 months down the line. Or you could go with my “Guaranteed Money Maker Method.” Pick The Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. The Buffalo Bills.
Tampa Bay is a 50/1 longshot to win The NFC Championship. The AFC East basement dwelling Buffalo Bills are listed at 50/1 to take the AFC. What you need to do is put a parlay on the bet with the 100/1 Bills taking the Lombardi Trophy.
From Wikipedia: A parlay or accumulator is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much higher.
If any of the bets in the parlay loses, the entire parlay loses. If any of the plays in the parlay ties, or “pushes”, the parlay reverts to a lower number of teams with the odds reducing accordingly
You wager $1,000 on Arsenal/Manchester United to draw, Chelsea to win and Liverpool to win. You win $6,072 as you correctly predicted all three results.
So do I really think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. The Buffalo Bills and will be in Superbowl 45? Hell no. But right now it is anybody’s guess who will go to the big dance this year. So I am going to put my money where it can do the most damage. Weirder things have happened.
So based on this formula if you parlay $10 on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. The Buffalo Bills Superbowl with The Bills winnig the game you are looking to make $250,000! Now that is real money. That is the kind of cash that could get me out of this trailer park. Here are all of the NFL futures for the Superbowl do what you will.
When you see me hitching up the trailer and moving to Biloxi in February don’t say I didn’t try to tip you off.
|Odds to win 2011 Superbow|
|Green Bay Packers||10/1|
|Kansas City Chiefs||90/1|
|New England Patriots||12/1|
|New Orleans Saints||10/1|
|New York Giants||25/1|
|New York Jets||10/1|
|San Diego Chargers||11/1|
|San Francisco 49ers||25/1|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||150/1|