Sure we are more than a month away from the first real snap of the 2015 NFL season but the odds makers have already put the games in play. A savvy bettor can clean up week one by making bets now and locking in some great odds.
Right now in theory anyone can take the NFL Championship. Sure, there are teams out there that don’t have a chance in hell (cue the Factory of Sadness in Cleveland). However, for this reason odds makers have very tight spreads on these games. Keeping these spreads even tighter is the fact no one is betting yet. As people start throwing money down on teams the odds will shift to balance the risk for the Sports Books. As star players get dinged up in preseason games and in training camp you will see these odds shift even more drastically.
I am going to give you what I think are a few locks and props for NFL week 1 odds 2015.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at New England Patriots -3 – New England is still favored in this game but the spread is shrinking. This opened at -6 for the New England Patriots and is now at -3. Yes, it is tough to roll into New England and beat them on their home turf during a nationally broadcasted season opener….but. I see this as a prop bet. You are betting on the outcome of the court proceedings not the game. If Tom Brady’s suspension stands expect that spread to flip by game time. I have the feeling Tom Terrific is sitting at least this one out, give me Pittsburgh +3
Minnesota Vikings – 1.5 at San Francisco 49ers + 1.5 – I am betting on another flip of the odds here and another home team losing a nationally televised season opener. The line opened in the 49ers favored at -4.5. The line dropped with the arrest and release of Aldon Smith and I don’t think that is the last wheel to fall off San Francisco’s bus before the start of the season. Too bad it is too late to get in on the Vikings at +4 but I will confidently take the +1.5. Expect week 1 to be a coming out party for Adrian Peterson and Mike Wallace, both of them have a chips on their shoulders and a lot to prove. Teddy Bridgewater is also a year older and a year better.
Your last lock is
Miami Dolphins – 2.5 at Washington Redskins + 2.5 – Here is another spread that is already moving. This spread opened at -1.5/+1.5 and hasn’t moved on injury but on general knowledge. The Miami Dolphins mortgaged their future to win now and have spent big on defense, receivers and gave Ryan Tannehill the confidence he needs with a new contract. Washington has done the opposite with Washington General Manager Scot McCloughan saying “You know what, we’re not gonna be the best team out there this year,”. You can expect that comment itself to move the spread a few points. Way to motivate the troops Scot. Players are not going to put their bodies on the line knowing they are walking into a 1 – 15 season. Expect Dolphins Suh, Wake and Oliver to set the tone from the first snap of this game for the rest of their season. On the other side of the ball Ryan Tannehill gets to show off his shiny new toys, Jennings, Parker, Cameron and Stills. We can also expect great production from 2nd year receiver Jarvis Landry. Give me the Miami Dolphins – 2.5 expect that spread to at least double by game time.