If you took our advice last week, you did pretty well. We hit three of our four bets. We followed the money and went with The Miami Dolphins over the New England Patriots. The Baltimore Ravens over The NY Jets was another successful pick. Where we were shocked was The Houston Texans tying with the Indianapolis Colts. However, if you took our prop bet of the week, Miami Defense/Special Teams, to score a touchdown +550, you had a nice little payday.
With week one in the books, there is still a lot of mystery surrounding these NFL. teams. But isn’t that the fun part of betting on the NFL? Here are this week’s picks, locks, and props.
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1 p.m., CBS.)
The Patriots are favored to win by more than 2.5 points. The line makes me scratch my head, seeing The Patriots are coming off a loss in Miami where they scored an anemic 7 points. The Steelers just beat the AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road. Mike Tomlin has a 75% win percentage when he is the underdog at home. The match-up in this game I love is Matt Patricia vs. Brian Flores. Yes, I know Brian Flores is not the defensive coordinator for The Steelers but believe me, he will be very involved in this game. Flores has a lot of success against Belichick-coached teams. Tomlin will be leaning on Brian Flores heavily on Sunday.
Take The Steelers money line +110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (1 p.m., FOX)
The Buccaneers are favored to win by more than 2.5 points, but I again like the underdog. Tom Brady as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer is 0-4 against The New Orleans Saints. A gut check says he is due for a win. Also I hate betting against the GOAT.. However, five of the seven Buccaneers wide receivers are injured prior to Sunday’s game. They are listed as Russell Gage (hamstring), Chris Godwin (hamstring), Julio Jones (knee) Mike Evans (calf) and Breshad Perriman (knee). Even if all five suit up on Sunday, can we expect them all to play at 100%? Making this more troublesome is star Running back Leonard Fournette (hamstring) is also banged up. I see the New Orleans Saints once again giving Tom Brady a tough afternoon.
Take New Orleans Saints money line +115
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (1 p.m., CBS.)
One interesting betting strategy would be to bet against The New York Jets all season. In doing so, you might lose 2 or 3 out of 17 weeks. You might not lose your bet all year. I am not beating up on the New York Jets, I am just stating a fact. The Jacoby Brissett era Cleveland Browns looked a lot better than anyone expected them to look on Sunday. Jacoby Brissett squashed Baker Mayfield’s dream of a revenge game on the road. Jacoby Brissett’s performance moved him up two spots on the NFL’s Quarterback rankings, leapfrogging his Sunday opponent, Super Bowl champion Joe Flacco. No, I am not all in on Jacoby Brissett. However, The Jets are in no position to take this game.
Take Cleveland Browns and the point spread: Browns -6.5
This week’s prop bet:
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys (4:25 p.m., C.B.S.)
Let me start by saying Cooper Rush is not a lousy Quarterback. In the outings he has had, he has shown promise. Add to that; he does not have a history of throwing interceptions. This season there is a lot of pressure on Cooper Rush to stand in for Dax Prescott, I know The Cincinnati Bengals will also bring the pressure on Sunday. I can see The Cincinnati Bengals winning the turnover battle on Sunday.
Cooper Rush total interceptions 0.5 – take the over +135