“UFC 158 takes place tonight in Montreal Canada. It feature Canadian born Georges St. Pierre vs Californian native Nick Diaz. The card is pretty stacked with good fights, there are even some intriguing matchups on the undercard! Lets get to our picks!
Jake Ellenberger (28-6, 7-2 UFC) vs. Nate Marquardt (32-11-2, 10-4 UFC)
This is more of a matchup of Ellenberger vs his gas tank. Marquardt may be the better striker in this fight, but his defensive wrestling abilities are going to hurt him vs Ellenberger. I believe Ellenberger will test the waters standing in hopes of getting a good shot in, but once Nate establishes his striking as superior, Ellenberger will take him down. Nate has struggled before against good wrestlers like when he lost in an upset at that time fight against Chael Sonnen. I see Jake Ellenberger using effective takedowns and a bit of “lay and pray” should he begin to fear Nate’s striking, or should he get tired. Ellenberger Via 3 round decision.
Carlos Condit (28-6, 5-2 UFC) vs. Johny Hendricks (14-1, 9-1 UFC)
What more does Johny Hendricks have to do to get a title shot ? He has knocked out Kampman and Fitch and had a split decision victory over the always game Josh Koscheck. I guess the next logical step would be beating Carlos Condit. Condit has knocked out both Kim and Hardy, who are both quite Hard to finish, then his footwork was good enough to beat current welterweight challenger Nick Diaz. Tonight the two will collide in the cage. Hendricks posses better wrestling and possible more power behind his punches, but Condit is a very well rounded fighter. I think Condit will use his footwork to hit-and-move while pressing the pace, trying to tire Hendricks. Hendricks will be looking for his power shot, but will lose precious energy with each swing-an-a-miss, eventually forcing him to take the fight to the ground. Condit has decent takedown defense, and the ability to get back up when down. This will be a close fight, but I got Carlos Condit via decision.
UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre (23-2, 17-2) vs. Nick Diaz (26-8, 7-5 UFC)
How do you earn a UFC Title shot ? Beat Paul Daley in Strikeforce, beat down B.J. Penn who is 1-4-1 in his last 6 fights, then lose a controversial 5 round decision to Carlos Condit, fail your drug test for marijuana after the fight, serve your one year suspension and it will be waiting for you when you return. Needless to say, Diaz has not worked his way up the ladder, but neither did Brock Lesnar, and he still took out Couture to capture the Heavyweight Championship. Diaz has this fight because he brings in viewers. He always try’s to get into his opponents head before the fight, mainly because his head is vulnerable during the fight. He gets frustrated easily and comes back with taunts and comments mid fight. I do not think that will work against GSP. Not because he barely speaks English, but because he is a smart fighter. He will utilize Condits hit and move strategy to frustrate Diaz. Once the frustration peeks, GSP will move in for a takedown. Diaz will test GSP’s solid submission defense, but it will be at the cost of some elbows from the champ. It is not a secret that Diaz has alot of scar tissue on his face, and he bleeds easily. Look for GSP to open those wounds and the doctors to look at the cuts a few times before finally stopping the fight around the 4th round. Diaz will protest and claim he was ripped off, and nothing will be settled.
To recap: Condit +105, Ellenberger -170 and I would parlay GSP -465 with Story -415 and Dilliashaw -655 to give you a 3 fighter parlay at -136.
Also, don’t forget to cheer on TMRzoo.com friend Chris Camozzi as he takes on Nick Ring. Chris lead the way in getting fellow UFC fighters to help us raise some money for kids with Cancer this month!