Here we are again, the NBA Championships. To be honest, it went much like everybody thought it would with the exception of the newly anointed powerhouse OKC having their championship hopes derailed due to injury. They veteran Spurs were there to step in for them. Now the face off against the Lebron James lead Miami Heat in a battle for NBA supremacy.
Before the playoffs began, it was the Heat who were thought to have the easiest path to the NBA finals as they held the number 1-seed in the much weaker Eastern Conference. They beat down the Bucks, they dismantled the injury plagued Chicago Bulls (after a game 1 slip up), but they ended up finding themselves in a dog fight against the Indiana Pacers. Meanwhile, the Spurs beat swept the Kobe-less Lakers, solved the Stephan Curry puzzle and put away the pesky Golden State Warriors in 6 and then swept the Memphis Grizzles in the Western Finals. It was perhaps a bit of revenge for when the Grizzles pulled of the 8-1 upset two years ago. None of that matters now, there is just the Heat and the Spurs.
To say that the Heat of rode on Lebron’s back this last series would be an understatement. Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade struggled mightily, especially from the field, while Lebron James did what Lebron James does. He took over. The rest of the Heat are going to be asked to shoulder a larger load on defense this time around because the Spurs have more weapons than the Pacers. They can play in the low post with Tim Duncan, and they have no shortage of guys who can knock down a three pointer from the perimeter. This will be the first legit offense that the Heat have faced this post season. It will be interesting to see how they adjust to having to cover multiple scorers.
The San Antonio spurs are a veteran squad that contains a batch of young talent as well. We all know what Duncan, Ginobilli and Parker are capable of, but it’s the young guns in Leonard, Green and Splitter who will be looking to make a name for themselves in this year’s finals. Perhaps the young-gun with the biggest task this series will be swingman Kawhi Leonard, as he is asked to guard Lebron James. Leonard has drawn comparison to former Spurs great Bruce Bowen, except Leonard is about 30 pounds heavier, giving him a slight advantage over Bowen when covering James.
To figure out who will win game one and who will win the rest of this series, I will turn to Newtons law of Motion. “An object at rest remains at rest unless acted upon by a force. An object in motion remains in motion, and at a constant velocity, unless acted upon by a force.” Currently the Spurs are at rest. They have been resting and waiting for the Pacers-Heat series to wrap up and I expect them to be rusty. The Heat have gotten some much needed rest, but are not suffering nearly the layover the Spurs are facing. That is why I think that the Heat will win game 1. I want to say it will be quite the domination, but I do think this series will see close scores each week. I’ll take the moneyline. Miami Heat ML -220 3 Units
For the series, I think game one will be the force that sets the Spurs in motion and game two will be the force that sets the Heat to rest. My gut is telling me that the Heat are going to win it all. It’s no secret that the refs love them some Miami Heat most of the time, and that late calls may go in favor of the Heat, but I am going to go off of my basketball and gambling experience. The Miami Heat are currently -210 to win it all. It seems that Vegas is questioning the supporting cast of the Heat and their ability to matchup with the Spurs. I am going to go out on a limp and say that the Spurs will figure out the Heat and beat them … maybe even in 5. I will wait till the Heat win game one before making that wager. Here are a few other things you can bet on:
A flagrant foul in series -285
Two of the biggest flopping teams in the NBA mixed with the Spurs watching how Miami handled rough play in previous series makes this one a very highly likely scenario.
Lebron James wins NBA finals MVP -190
If you think the Heat are a lock to win it all, this play is a little bit cheaper than betting on the Heat. Let’s face it, if the Heat win, Lebron will be the MVP. That much is guaranteed.
T.Duncan series PPG avg over 17 -155
Roy Hibbert had his way in the paint vs. the Heat, Duncan is an excellent post player and has a stronger offensive supporting cast than Hibbert did, so they will have a tougher time double teaming him.
L.James a triple double in series +160
When compared to the other greats, the biggest thing that Lebron fans argue is his ability to fill the stat sheet. Lebron is aware of his stats and I think he will aim for tipple doubles whe they are in his sights.
That’s all for now. We will be back as this series progresses.