Super Bowl Sunday: Picks, Predictions, Prop Bets and Stone Cold Locks – Against the Spread, Totals and Money Line

Wake up. It’s game day. If you haven’t placed your to-go order for wings and Pizza, its probably too late. Get to the grocery store, get your party items and lets get going. It is time to wager. There is not gambling event in the world like the Super Bowl. You can bet on EVERYTHING, but I wouldn’t recommend it.  There are a few funny wagers that can be profitable, not to mention the winner of the game itself. What a match up it will be. Denver Broncos vs the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams were picked for TMRzoo’s “Guaranteed one of these 5 teams will win the Super Bowl” so that makes us a winner for the 2nd straight year. But alas, time is running out, lets get to it. 

First Penalty of the game: This is an interesting one. The Seahawks use a lot of excessive holding in their secondary. They haven’t been called for it yet, but the refs could call it now to set the tone. However, an official admitted to the Wall Street Journal this week that refs will be reluctant to throw flags in the game unless they are very flagrant. That being said, a strong case could be made for holding or a false start. Both have about the same odds, but I am going to lead False Start because that usually occurs when your nerves are high. I think it will happen early before the players get a chance to settle in. False Start +250 1 unit. 


Russell Wilson longest rush OVER 11.5 yards: I think Denver will do a good job containing Wilson, but I think he will face enough 3rd and longs that he will get everybody deep and take off for a 15-20 yrd run. Russell Wilson longest rush OVER 11.5 yards -110 2 Units

Most penalty yards by Seahawks : Seattle has had the most penalty yards this season, Denver has had the 4th most. Seattle is an extra physical team and I think they will be especially physical when facing the finesse offense of the Broncos. Most penalty yards by Seahawks -120 2 units 

Demaryius Thomas UNDER 5 receptions: I think Richard Sherman is going to get the task of covering Thomas, but I think that will be fine. Broncos will sacrifice the queen to protect the king. Even if they take Thomas out of the game, that still leaves Welker, Julius Thomas, Decker and Moreno to catch passes. I am not sure Manning will even target Thomas 5 times. Demaryius Thomas UNDER 5 receptions +120 2 units 

Highest-scoring half = 2nd + OT : I like this bet a lot. I think these teams will be figuring each other out early. In the 2nd half, the losing team will feel the pressure to start swinging for the fences on offense and going for turnovers on defense. As proof, the 2nd half in Superbowls overages out to be 3 points higher than the first halves.  Highest-scoring half = 2nd + OT -130 2 units. 

Richard Sherman UNDER 3.5 total tackles and assists: Richard Sherman is not much of a tackler. He either breaks up the pass so their is nothing to tackle, or Seattle’s great D-line and Linebackers eat up the runningback. Don’t fall for this play. Richard Sherman UNDER 3.5 total tackles and assists -135 2 units

Now here are a few prop bets to avoid: 

Missed extra point: Yes +800 This is horrible value! We recently discussed this in my business statistics class. Extra points are made 99.6 % of the time, that’s why the NFL is talking about removing them.

Peyton Manning to win MVP: This is set at -140. Why would you play that when you could bet on the Broncos to win the game at -130 ? Technically Manning could win even if they lose the game, but that has only happened once, and it was a very long time ago. Do not make this bet.

Finally, the game. 

Denver Broncos (-2) Vs Seattle Seahawks: The line has been all over the place. Most places opened with Seattle as the favorites, but the bettors have driven the line down toward the Broncos and now Denver sees itself as a favorite in this game.

What the Seahawks have: The Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL. They have strong bodies up front to stop the run and rush the QB and they have a secondary that can make you pay for putting the ball in the air. Their offense is not as spectacular. Their o-line is the anchor. They keep Marshawn Lynch going forward and they help Russel Wilson stay upright. Wilson is an interesting QB. He was overlooked in all of the Luck-RG3 talks, and he may not have as much upside as those two, but he is in a better system and on a better team and therefore producing better results.  Wilson can avoid pressure and make good reads. If the Denver defensive line doesn’t stay in his face, it could be an easy game for Wilson.

What the Broncos have: Offense. Not just the best offense in the league, but the best offense in NFL history. They are solid on the run, but are amazing on the pass. Sure Seattle has the best pass defense in the NFL, but they have not faced an offense with as many weapons has the Broncos have. On defense, the Broncos are not spectacular. (What happened to the defense that carried Tim Tebow?) Either way, they are not facing a spectacular offense, so I think that will be a solid matchup for them.

The winner will be: Defense wins championships right? That’s what they say. Course, do you really wanna bet against Peyton Manning after he has had two weeks to prepare for a team? But then again, Manning hasn’t been overwhelming in Superbowls, but those games are in the past right? This is the best offense in NFL history? Decisions, decisions. It seems all of the sports “Wise Guys” are taking Seattle, but I am going to ride with the public here. Peyton Manning cements his legacy and finishes off one of the greatest seasons by a QB ever. Then he retires. Broncos -130 5 Units!

Enjoy the game!