NFL Week 1 Betting Guide: Picks, Locks and Props

Heading into week one of the NFL season, there are a lot of unknowns. Not only do the teams not have film on each other, we fans do not know how these teams will look. Betting on NFL week, 1 looks at last year’s performance, the draft, free agent trades, pre-season game outcomes, and a bit of luck. Taking all of this into consideration, here are our picks, locks, and props

NE Patriots at Miami Dolphins – TV: CBS SUN SEP. 111:00 PM EDT

The line is Miami -3.5, with 83% of the money presently being placed on Miami. The question is can Mac Jones make a year two jump? Even if he does, will it be enough to beat Miami on the road where Belichick struggled even with Tom Brady under center? The Dolphins have too many offensive weapons to cover for Steve Belichick’s defense. Even without Tyrek Hill, an improved offensive line, and an upgraded running game Tua’s Dolphins swept Belichick twice last year. The last game was by two scores.

Take The Miami Dolphins -3.5

Baltimore Ravens @ N.Y. Jets TV: CBS SUN SEP. 11 1:00 PM EDT

Zack Wilson will be watching this game from the bench. That leaves veteran Joe Flaco to face his old team. While Flaco is an upgrade at quarterback to Wilson, he does not have enough left in the tank to get past the Raven’s defense. Looking at these teams on paper, Baltimore is better in every aspect. Coaching, offense, and defense are all areas where the Raves are superior to the Jets. Week 1 NFL games are statements games. You can expect The Ravens to make a big statement against this soft Jets team.

Take The Baltimore Ravens -7.5

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans TV: CBS SUN SEP. 11 1:00 PM EDT

The Houston Texans are one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL. All signs point to a rebuilding year with the Texans’ eyes on the 2023 draft. They are built very well to get that first pick overall in 2023. The Texans are starting third-round rookie quarterback Davis Mills. Mills will start his first NFL game with limited weapons. The Texans placed second round rookie WR Metchie on the active/non-football illness list. Brandin Cooks a solid WR2 will now be the WR1 and top target. Cooks will likely be covered all day by ex-teammate
Stephon Gilmore. I like Gilmore in this matchup.

Take The Colts -7.5

This week’s prop bet:

I am heading back to the NE Patriots at Miami Dolphins game for this week’s prop bet. The Patriot’s offensive line is a work in progress. Dolphin’s defensive coordinator Josh Boyer returns this year with his blitz-heavy scheme. Simply said, Mac jones will be rushed. Making this more problematic, admittedly, Xavien Howard, one of the league’s best cornerbacks, is still in Mac’s head. I can see Mac Jones making some rushed/bad throws on Sunday. I can also see Miami’s defense making him pay for those decisions. Miami was 2nd in the league in 2021 for pick-sixes, tied with The Patriots.

Take Miami Defense/Special Teams to score a touchdown +550